The threat of a ”no deal” situation hangs over the COP30 meeting in Belém. The reason is not the world’s climate will, but the EU’s need to stick to its dogma at all costs. When Brazil’s draft paper doesn’t fit the European narrative, nerves are frayed – and the drama begins.
Context – Two realities collide
The COP30 in Belém is already in a difficult place. An increasing number of countries – from India to Saudi Arabia and the emerging economies of Africa – are refusing to commit to absolute fossil fuel bans because their economies are based on stable and cheap energy.
The EU will arrive with its old strategy: if you don’t do as we do, the whole meeting will be meaningless. This is no longer diplomacy, it is protecting the narrative.
However, Brazil’s latest draft document has reversed the situation. It lacks the EU’s preferred ”phase-out of fossil fuels” clause. That alone was enough to trigger panic in Brussels.
Evidence – Signals the EU doesn’t want to hear
- EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra called the draft ”unacceptable” and warned of a ”no deal” scenario – a classic pressure tactic when arguments are not enough.
- More than 30 countries had pressed Brazil to include a draft global CO₂ reduction plan. It did not materialise.
- France blames India, Russia and Saudi Arabia, as if the individual countries were responsible for the failure of the whole summit.
- Germany is calling for a rewrite, even though it is Germany itself that is the poster child for a failed energy transition and industrial collapse.
- Greenpeace complains of a ”lack of ambition”, as if rhetoric were more important than the realism of electricity production.
- Climate finance is running on empty – the donors are running out, and the recipients want more for nothing.
- The conference centre had to be evacuated due to a fire – a symbol that perfectly describes the whole state of the event: lots of smoke, little substance.
Analysis – What is this really about?
1. The EU no longer leads – it tries to control
Europe is no longer the centre of climate policy power. The economies of Asia and the Middle East are not willing to scupper their own growth for the sake of EU political ambition. The EU’s role has changed: it is no longer a trendsetter, but a moralising enforcer.
2. Rapid fossil depletion is economic suicide
Most global economies prefer stability to ideological purity. For India and Saudi Arabia, it’s not about ”being a climate villain” – it’s about the fact that the energy needs of billions of people cannot be solved by European slogans.
3. The EU’s own proposal is not universal, but Eurocentric
Brussels still thinks that its internal debate is the norm for the whole world. In reality:
- Europe is losing its industry.
- Energy costs will rise.
- Politicians who push for fossil fuel bans cannot guarantee a functioning energy grid, even in their home countries.
4. Climate finance is the real Achilles heel of COPs
The question is not ”will we save the planet”, but ”who will foot the bill”. The industrialised countries say they are already at the limit. The recipient countries want more – but without conditions. No amount of rhetoric will close this gap.
Implications – What does this say about COP30 and the role of the EU?
- COP30 will not collapse because of fossils – it will collapse because no one will swallow the EU’s demands without biting.
- The credibility of EU energy policy has been eroded. Germany is not taking instructions while the country itself suffers the consequences of its own energy transition.
- Climate policy has become a geopolitical power play. ”Ambition” is effectively a power grab.
- Narrative eats reality. As electricity grids crumble and industry runs away, the EU still urges the world to follow the same path.
Verdict – Lots of smoke, little energy
The EU’s threat to collapse COP30 reveals one thing:
climate diplomacy has gone from European idealism to a global power play where realism trumps dogma.
Belém will not necessarily fall. But it certainly will if the EU tries to forcefully rewrite the rest of the world’s energy economy.
📚 Sources
- Report24: EU warns of COP30 collapse
https://www.raportti24.fi/politiikka/eu-varoitus-cop30